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Why Trading Forex is so Difficult - Randomness in the Markets: Clusters of Bad and Good Luck

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● We interview traders & educators regularly. Subscribe if you want to learn while being entertained. ✔ Please like the video and comment if you enjoyed - it helps a lot! ● To Trade forex we recommend InterTrader http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/intertrader/intertrader.html No Dealing Desk platform. Why Trading Forex is so Difficult: Randomness in the Markets: Clusters of Bad and Good Luck. David Paul, Financial Trader comments. If you found value in watching this video, PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE so we can do more! It is always my understanding that it is difficult to make money long term when trading currencies and indices - how do you manage? Most trend following systems have less than a 50% correct hit rate. This means that you get a series of losing trades from time-to-time - how good would you be with executing your system with precision when you get 5 losing trades in a row.
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Text Comments (176)
piss pie (1 day ago)
Randomness doesnt exist
Chase null (4 days ago)
hokay
quallo EXHEXD S.A. (5 days ago)
So forex is about luck😨
Gico Regacho (5 days ago)
Whats the name of the guy?
Andre Alexander (21 days ago)
His genetic makeup is just wonderful
Incognito Window (26 days ago)
I managed to lose so much money investing - my wife dragged me to spend a weekend camped on the sand of an isolated private beach in another country.. one with no internet or cell service as luck had it our $60,000 USD grossly jammed into bitcoin ripple bitcoin gold went to shit when the market went south Jan 2018
You get a sequence of 3 every 64 rolls
Michael Arias (29 days ago)
He lost me at random, this is all BS.
Simple Mind (1 month ago)
Traders who trade based on their gut feelings or luck won't last very long.
Lungelo Gwala (1 month ago)
Any Zulu's in the house😀😀?
Apollos Hill (1 month ago)
I know what he is trying to explain about trading short-term in the Forex Market it is better for a midterm and long-term trades but the way he explained it was extremely confusing
Augustine O. (1 month ago)
Anyone trading forex based on luck is doomed to fail because trading isn't about luck but pure skill cultivated over a period. It is like developing any other skill such as writing, singing, instruments, cobbler etc. You have to understand markets and how and why price moves in markets. People who succeed in forex understand where market movers are willing to buy and sell. Anyone who believes primarily in luck for trading success has a problem with his/her view of reallity. Your view is being obscured by irrational, illogical, non-evidence based mentality which can be found mainly in people of faith and people with high credulity.
tony a (1 month ago)
you have to treat it as a business , the 35%of times you are wrong is just business costs , every business has them , trading is no exception
nandy surya (1 month ago)
Nice explanation for FX trade
News Update (1 month ago)
I like his analogy. funny but 100% correct!
Kurt Cooper (1 month ago)
I don't have rabbits feet, I don't kiss beads, I don't cross my fingers & luck is a random word u use to fit a sentence or solution in place of wisdom. I don't believe in luck & never had a 5 in a row losing streak. Average 80% winners even though it's only going to give u a 10%+ return. But hey, I like listening to new ideas & everyone has an opoinion. But your math is based on luck.
Edwin Jansen (1 month ago)
It is always a challenge to keep listening when the person mentions a strategy in the first minute that is the exact opposite from what you are comfortable with and you trust and feel is the right strategy for you. I will get back later when my teachability is better. Of course strategies are as personal as tastes are. Trading is all about personal psychology. There are probable as many profitable strategies as there are people.
Rodrigo Albornoz (1 month ago)
This one was amazing! Thanks!!
Mr. Moneyman (1 month ago)
IT IS NOT 50-50, not even close , just had an experiment on my demo account, 100 trades which I executed on random basis (not even all random, had some good strategy trades, but market always shaked me off even tho I was setting up my stop losses according to 14 days ATR. My winning ratio was only 25% , even tho my risk reward was 1-2.5. I was trading Crude Oil. If I had edge of only 32% I would be profitable. For some reason we are hardwired to lose. 100 trades is not a small sample, and what really creeps me out is that the universe doesn't want everybody to have 50% chance, why is that ?
Keith Jackson (1 month ago)
learn and master market structure
kwastro (1 month ago)
The market is random?? U must be smoking sh*t to think that. Many still think its random mmmmh keep learning.
day dreamer (2 months ago)
bang on.after experinnicingg such issue i hv learnt risk management is always necessary.
Simon Cornell (2 months ago)
Came for Forex advice - received a life lesson :D
Dihliz Nur (2 months ago)
because you dont have much or big balance..so forex is difficult...
Luca Puzzoli (2 months ago)
Euphoria is a riskless state of mind ! be confident but not euphoric
scott medes (2 months ago)
studying charts doesnt allow you to study business.
kebman (2 months ago)
Is he South African? Ah, so he _is_ South African! Hehe, I gather I have a hunch why he'd bet on copper, then...
Gerald Davis (3 months ago)
What do I do if I want to sell South Africa short.
quan talor (3 months ago)
All you gotta do is keep up with the trend , it’s really not that difficult, you must have multiple strategies as well , it’s literally like robbing a bank
RightClic God (3 months ago)
I got a sick winrate, way better than what he mentions, but I risk 1 to make 1 lol. I like winning, so I prefer it that way :) Just wanted to say, there is not just 1 way to do things.
Crazy Variety Tv (3 months ago)
The key is MM. example You have 1000usd and trading with lot size 0.01 that very smart but you have 1000usd and trading with lot size 1.00 that very STUPID.
BROJR. (3 months ago)
great, thank you.
Jacob Cooley (3 months ago)
buy currency in a growing economy(india) and sell currency in a failing economy(japan). hold on for a couple years. use 2-5 leverage.
Mitu Sens (3 months ago)
Excellent observations, he makes great sense. The subtitles are a scream.
S Capone (3 months ago)
I HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF HEARING THIS NONSENSE. This is hands down the most misleading and stupid interview I have ever seen. Trading forex is not random for god's sake. Price is driven by supply and demand. economic news releases are all priced into the forex markets like you wouldnt believe. People lose because of 3 main things. 1...psychology (fear, impatience, greed, stupidity) 2...No understanding of money/risk management and 3...They dont have ONE strategy/setup that they have mastered/backtested, and understand in which conditions the strategy/setup works a HUGE majority of the time, and in which conditions it doesnt. I trade 1 setup with a 90-95% win rate with a risk:reward of minium 1:2 per trade. This guy in this interview is not a good trader. Period. If your strategy/setup works "50%" of the time then it can work 90-99% of the time. How you may ask? It is simple. Find the common factors/market conditions as to why your strategy only worked in that "50%" bracket of wins. You WILL find that all your winners have similar things. Then, have the PATIENCE to WAIT and only trade when the market is in those EXACT similar conditions. For example. was the market structure trending? was it ranging? was it during london session? newyork session? Just think about it...
Sam Finance Tech (3 months ago)
Forex trading is difficult... Had to use high leverage for gains.. An 0.1% miss and it will be over 😵
Charlie Brookes (3 months ago)
The things i would do to talk one on one with that man for an hour...
ForgottenKnight1 (3 months ago)
Theory is all nice and dandy, but this does not happen in real trading. What happens in real trading is that you can get 2 wins, for example followed by 6 losses in a row, then 5 wins, followed by 1 loss, then 9 followed by 3 and so on. It is much more random than you think. You cannot theorize your success rate. Also, much more important is not the frequency of your losses, but the consequences of each particular loss. You can be wrong 9 times and right just 1 to make it even when it comes to money. The opposite can also happen, where 9 wins get erased by 1 loss. So frequency is not so important as consequence .
Sam Finance Tech (3 months ago)
ForgottenKnight1 , you are right when it comes to forex trading....
Shu Winston (4 months ago)
after this video i am considering selling my granny
Aleks Martini (4 months ago)
Bla bla bla ... machine learning and AI is the future
Michael M. (4 months ago)
surprisingly very good interview
jullian mark (4 months ago)
top top man. wisdom and knowledge with no ego.
Dirk Maier (4 months ago)
And Forex is a Zero-Sum game. That what you win must another lose. And there are mostly Banks and other professional Traders against you. I tried it but the Stock-Market is easier in my opinion because that is no Zero-Sum game and when the Stocks go up all can win. Win-Win-Situation for everybody . Thats much easier.
SCHRODINGER’S CAT (4 months ago)
dont listen to a forex trader who says its easy. he hasn't hit the wipe out yet. trading forex is a humbling experience. theres absolutely nothing 'easy' about trading currencies.
P. Thriver (4 months ago)
I want to be this guy when I grow up. But with more hair.
Tharwat Jad (4 months ago)
What a beautiful and genius mind I really like him
Tudor Renegade (4 months ago)
This is so true, I have experienced all those states!
JmansFragments (4 months ago)
Im.gunna slay the forex markets completely on a super level 🔥 watch
Iwona Rudnik (5 months ago)
who is this guy
CeleronS1 (5 months ago)
5 straight loses is not 32 but 25. Just sayin :D
Aleksey Foorkalo (5 months ago)
I love how the guy, claiming to be a trader talks about market as it's some kind of casino. Why not go and play real roulette then, huh,monkey? At least, it has 1 to 40 win rate.Either a Fking amateur or a fking liar.
jluceroo7 (5 months ago)
Best interview I ever seen. Honest funny guy and confirmed most of my assumptions of the market.
screamao (5 months ago)
if out of 10,u can get 6 profit trade thats already amazing.the key is to maintain 60% profit,leave 40% for losses
Yung100 (5 months ago)
Two words Risk Management 👌
Shaun's Fish Tanks (5 months ago)
read the price action and look for confluences,,, easy
james thackray (5 months ago)
The maths is based on a strategy of tossing a coin!!!!
RICKY GRIFFIN (5 months ago)
Trade London open only 2am to 4am Cst
Trader Kevin (5 months ago)
1000% agree , very well said
shadz goodridge (5 months ago)
i can listen to him and learn a lot he's ranking with chris terri love listening to them
Chris Hansen (5 months ago)
He has it. Its all psychological. It's not centered on the strategy or the market, not the news or the value but in the behavior of the humans trading. The reason why many people lose in trading is they lack knowledge and discipline. They don't know how humans behave in certain scenarios and don't put in the amount of effort to learn it. Because of this they go in blind with a strategy they learned that might not work because it conflicts with the most important factor in trading: "Human." Sometimes these strategies work like fitting a triangle through a circle but other times they fall hard because the market doesn't behave in the way that strategy works best. We must develop the skills to read past the charts and ratios and see the way a human reading those charts will feel about them and the decisions they themselves will choose. We aren't playing a numbers game against computers, we are playing a mind game against fellow humans. "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." - Sun Tzu
Kuziai (5 months ago)
There is no randomness in forex market everything controlled right to a PIP! yes a PIP. Algorithms do that not ppl. Its easy to predict the market once you know what algorhitms will do for the day. Second thing if you make more that 5 loses in a row quit trading because you have 0 understanding about markets
Hayden Lawrence (5 months ago)
Excellent interview. Key point for me is managing risk. Forget about how many losing trades you have just try to keep them small and let your good trades play out. In practice you can have more losing trades than winning trades and still turn a profit if you have the discipline to cut your loses and let the winners run.
Zhi Kai Zhang (5 months ago)
Thank you 🙏
Lawrence _ (5 months ago)
@Allan Mena I agree with you those who know how to trade forex will never tell you......
Azu Shi (5 months ago)
how come stocks have higher hit rate?
OB TC (6 months ago)
They (and they are out there) that 90% of all traders fail. because they still need ditch diggers and burger flippers, go to college and take a loan for $50,000 + and spend 4+ years of your life taking courses that don’t mean shit, they (individuals) come out and have to work minimum wage. Now that’s failure...nobody takes about that.
CHATS AND LIVE TRADES (6 months ago)
It is crazy how many of these guys start with the negative instead of giving you something you can use. All of this negative programming by these markets have an affect. You can achieve anything!!!!!
Khutso Seleke (6 months ago)
The trick is to hold all bad positions until you breakeven. Dont sell at a loss.
Luca Puzzoli (6 months ago)
I love this video! I am a big fan of Mark Douglas and trading psychology I believe in random outcome between win and losses this is how casinos make money on random outcomes only on a long term basis not on a trade by trade basis!! Happy trading check out mark Douglas if you want to understand your self better the key to success is inside your self not in the market
Kent Wrankmore (7 months ago)
Legend!
Millionairess (7 months ago)
That shit stressed me so bad that I started coming out of remission from my thyroid issues. I had to quit Trading Forex recently. My health and well being are my most important investments.
Ahmed Saffah (7 months ago)
wow. My inner divine voice just got replaced. Spot on. A week of wins and I got cocky at NFP day of all days. 😅 Wiser for it.
ASDF123000 (7 months ago)
grant cardone would disagree with that last sentence
ASDF123000 (7 months ago)
she fancies the old man
carot2003 (7 months ago)
Very interesting..
utunaaga (7 months ago)
Who is this guy? I heard the interviewer call him David. David who?
jay singer (7 months ago)
i know a couple hedge fund guys and they've all said the geniuses trade currencies. You should start a hedge fund! It's hard for an investor cus you have to understand the entire economic and political landscape of a country (interest rates, inflation, FDI). Then you have to predict what those will be in the future. Then you have to understand what country in the same region's economic and political landscapes are and will be. And then the same globally! . IS THIS TRUE ????????????????????????????????????
jay singer (7 months ago)
i know a couple hedge fund guys and they've all said the geniuses trade currencies. You should start a hedge fund! It's hard for an investor cus you have to understand the entire economic and political landscape of a country (interest rates, inflation, FDI). Then you have to predict what those will be in the future. Then you have to understand what country in the same region's economic and political landscapes are and will be. And then the same globally! . IS THIS TRUE ????????????????????????????????????
Sangdin Hatzaw (7 months ago)
soooo true
Cutting Edge Cool (8 months ago)
Serious experience and knowledge speaking!
Hayden Harris (8 months ago)
The forex graph direction changes far to often and without notice to make any use of training or strategies or softwares .
D.C.S. ACT (8 months ago)
Thanks for the Greed management.
Wavemaker (8 months ago)
He is using the 4-hr chart to enter a trade. His horizon must be in months and his stop loss is 150 pips.
ThisnThatPackRat (9 months ago)
Hahaha. ANYONE wanting to trade for a living should go to a card room and play poker. Get good at poker and take all those bad beats that are coming your way without muttering a word...then, and only then, start to think about trading.
Sinothi Phoswa (9 months ago)
I am Zulu! AND i know Muthi ( i like this man)
carlos Uzcategui (9 months ago)
No es difícil es una mentira .. Cada día cambian la tedencia y el que se duerme se lo lleva la corriente
Gats (9 months ago)
This guy is crazy... not sure if it's crazy good or crazy loony! Funny though. I think he's on the right track but had a hard time following him. Curious though that his best trade was one he admits he had no knowledge of. Not very inspiring.
Mr. Bill Parkinson (9 months ago)
You're talking about math and luck as the same thing. shut your mouth sir. You dont know its in a range? wtf... how have you made any money. you know its in a range right after it failed to break new lows or highs, its not rocket science. luck clusters huh lol you're delusional old man! life is not random, you create your reality, be intuitve to your emotions and the enrgies you're feeling. ni all aspects of life, not just trading.
Appraisal (9 months ago)
No risk when you read candle sticks
BINARY OPTIONS UK (10 months ago)
nice video
715490 926 (10 months ago)
Aka he cuts his losses quick. Stop holding on to bad stocks. Once you see it go down 1-3% of your position, sell it.
tomkwi36 (10 months ago)
Unbelievebly excellent stuff...That is in my opinion proof that you can find real pearls on the web.
joe caterman (11 months ago)
51 people blew their accounts.
gonçalo (11 months ago)
My best trading week i was taking huge risks, around 10-20% per trade, i was very emotional too because of lot size.What made me tons of money was just adding to winners, cut losses when i realize i was wrong and sticking up with a strategy. Now a days im too scared to do it again, just thinking that 3 or 4 wrong trades could have destroyed me...but ended up very very good. Number 1 rule: go with trending markets, dont try to find the top or the bottom
helena lessels (11 months ago)
What an excellent video, so absolutely true. Clusters of good and bad luck are to be expected, but my ability to navigate both needs a lot of work
KpxUrz5745 (1 year ago)
Agree with him that managing risk is essential for a trader, but I thoroughly disagree with his essentially dismal outlook that markets are SO random that every trade is a 50/50 proposition. By stepping up one's game in chart study, one can do far far better. And, there are clues to confidence level, so that the better setups can be traded more agressively. His approach seems so lackluster and sad. The learning curve can be quite lengthy, in becoming a consistenly profitable trader in non-upwardly biased markets, such as futures and currencies.
Higgs000Boson (1 year ago)
His best trade was when he didn't touch his position for a few days. I always thought it's the best strategy ;)
Kingdom Mann (1 year ago)
His math is wrong regarding "2 bad/good trades in a row." The correct answer is that there is a 1 in 4 (or 25% of the time this will occur over a 100 trades) chance of having 2 bad/good trades in a row.
Price Bayliss (1 year ago)
Hommie didnt mention about the green space on roulette...
Jason Alerts (1 year ago)
This guy sound like a losing trader. People actually make money in the Forex market and have a high success rate. These old skool traders think 50% is good well its not. 50% Win rate in my eyes is crap.

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