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IS THE STOCK MARKET PREDICTABLE? | Efficient Market Hypothesis

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www.SkyViewTrading.com Is the stock market predictable? Many would argue YES... But the Efficient Market Hypothesis says that it's impossible to “beat” the market because all current and relevant information is already factored into the stock price. Most traders defensively argue against this theory because if it were true, then that means they can’t outperform the overall market… So why even try? It is up to you to decide for yourself... We, on the other hand, are advocates of this theory that the markets are incredibly efficient. But we see it as a GOOD thing because we know that as long as we are trading liquid assets, the pricing is always very fair. In this video, we show you a demonstration of Market Efficiency, and we also explain what this means to our trading. Adam Thomas Sky View Trading is the market rigged stock market predictable how to predict the stock market how to pick stocks efficient market hypothesis efficient market theory market efficiency how to trade options options trading stock trading
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Text Comments (98)
Felipe S (1 hour ago)
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Felipe S (12 minutes ago)
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Mamunur Rashid (26 days ago)
Utter 'nonsense' video. A waste of time!!!
Mamunur Rashid (26 days ago)
Utter 'nonsense' video. A waste of time!!!
Jimena Berchtold (1 month ago)
through her intense trading over the past couple of months, Beatrice has been able to amass on my behalf, funds to the tune of over half a million euros. This woman deserves all the props, she's doing the most right now.
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with her trading on my behalf, earning profit is like a walk in the park
Laura Pettroni (1 month ago)
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edward meyer (1 month ago)
she always does an excellent job, i still get my fortnightly payouts of $17000 right on schedule
hilda tokimoto (1 month ago)
it only took a few emails for me to know that i was on to a genius at this trade
Kenneth DiChiara (1 month ago)
Hi, I just subscribed to your channel. I’m new to this and trying to learn as much as possible. Just wanted to ask what program do you use in the video to view options??
Katzer Ewald (2 months ago)
*FirstMillionRoad* is service for future millionaires
abc123 (2 months ago)
Total BS...EMH is a joke. Market crashes would never happen if what you're saying is true.
TheHvk (3 months ago)
If it's always efficient though, then why would there even be crashes like the great recession in 2008, or the dotcom bubble? If it's efficient, wouldn't all of that be priced in and the markets never wildly rise or fall at all? How does EMH handle blindside events like that?? Loving the content by the way. I intend to watch every video you've got up on this channel lol.
R0man 009 (3 months ago)
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Sean Mastro (4 months ago)
He makes his money by Selling the Puts or Calls to the people that do not understand that Market Efficiencies Exist.
Joseph Hemingway (4 months ago)
The market is predictable but not 100% But you can research and see what happens Its not just chance Like warren buffet always beat market and so did other people did using his strategy Synthetic stock is short plus long Nothing is ever mispriced it is only bades on prople emotions take adv. Of this Options?
Insurance Casino (5 months ago)
Idiot.
Yogeeswar Pal (5 months ago)
Yo! your videos are great and very helpful, I remember you mentioning about predicting Volatility, is it Index VIX or individual stock you are talking about? and how to do it, knidly make a video about it if possible
David Glover (6 months ago)
Well, the people who predicted the '08 crash did so based on the mortgage backed securities that caused it. Not based on the "head and shoulders double black cross of DOOM."
Mat Allen (6 months ago)
Your video is on under the wrong title this was not the stock market for beginners also you spoke in circles to mislead and confuse people
cjorg16 (6 months ago)
Your presentation Ignores a lot of data that goes against the assumptions of the EMH. Even a brief study of the markets and human nature, will lead one to quickly see how people, their reactions and common errors affect how market behave. The field of behavioral finance can explain far better these market behaviors which mostly go against the assumptions of the EMH. If you believe the EMH, that's ok for you and your trading style. One should trade in a style that fits their beliefs. But describing the EMH as if it is a fact, and implying that no other styles of trading will work, nor have an 'edge', is either arrogant or ignorant. There is a very long list of very successful traders with audited results (aka Market Wizards), each using a wide variety of trading styles, that have found how to make their style work very consistently. Its ok if you have found your style based upon your beliefs...but that does not mean that other beliefs or styles are not just as successful, if not much more successful.
Nelson David (7 months ago)
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An An (7 months ago)
Great video! Interesting to see comments below almost treating this video as a personal insult to them!
James S (8 months ago)
Did no one see the big short?
An An (7 months ago)
James S -I’m sure here could have been a “Big Long” movie made should the result have worked out differently. I was sure there were other teams looking at the same data and making different conclusions.
Mike McGlock (8 months ago)
Biased video to sell and promote your courses.
Gabriel (8 months ago)
You said you make profits by trading options, the question is: can you beat the market by doing that? If you just buy an S&P500 fund you will also make a profit in the long run.
Serena Hussain (9 months ago)
i have homework question: Very risky stocks on average yield higher returns than relatively safe stocks. Is this a violation of market efficiency? how can i go about answering this?
Chancey Rene (10 months ago)
With a minimal knowledge on binary options, you can rock with this software (Link Here >>> *TraderIcon. Com* ). I wonder why it was not made earlier. Five star rating from me. It’s inevitably inspiring to make out some large profits, especially for newbie like me.
i'm new to trading but this sounds very much like what nassim taleb describes in his book "fooled by randomness"
Dassd Schsdu (1 year ago)
Nope.
Squeek Music (1 year ago)
Forget to include "gamblers fallacy"? that 11th coin still has 50/50 odds
abdul ghaffar (1 year ago)
I have Question : would trading like this basically be like gambling ???
nobody cares (1 year ago)
abdul ghaffar not really. Their is strategies and methods that is used in stocks market
J (1 year ago)
This guy has noooo clue what his talking about
Prince Agu (1 year ago)
how did yo make these video animations?
Mac Millan Lawyn (1 year ago)
Never saw so much follishness reunited
Steve Patterson (1 year ago)
You forgot one very important fact. In order for all the information to move price to the "efficient" level someone or group of traders would have to have know the "information" before it gets to that level. Traders simply do not understand the drivers behind a market and that is why traders fail.
Shaun Masi (1 year ago)
Just found you. Subscribed!
SonicScooter (1 year ago)
Rubbish.
Ambis Magee (1 year ago)
Man - you guys do some good videos. Have you quit youtube or just taking a break?
Sky View Trading (1 year ago)
We just took a break to build the rest of our services and education out for our members to our website. We'll be back to posting YouTube videos again soon! Thanks for the comment. Glad you're enjoying the videos! Also, make sure you sign up to receive our free 3 video series. I think you'll enjoy those videos! www.skyviewtrading.com/free-lessons/
laurens geluk (1 year ago)
How do you make these video's? What program do you use?
Supernova (1 year ago)
I have to say, as someone about to graduate with a degree in finance and someone who manages his own portfolio you just about nailed it. The only thing I would add is that markets are not always efficient. One reason is because there is a herd effect in the market which causes short term misprizing. Another reason has to do with timing although markets are notoriously quick to correct. I'm looking to learn more about options so I'll check out your other videos. Again, great job! Thanks!
Blade_des (1 year ago)
how are naked options affected by HFT activity? I did a paper trade on NVDA and I saw it hit past my mark of 112 all the way down to 107, but on the weekly chart it shows the lowest price only hit 112.60 So what I'm asking is how would my naked 112 put have been affected by the few seconds/milliseconds that the price was at 107?
ajkorras (1 year ago)
No counter-arguments? You make EMH sound like a religion. You forget who is using the market: people, which means that there is plenty of behavioral action going on.
scottab140 (2 months ago)
Market Hypothesis is efficient. Rational behavior is not.
Yes, markets are run by people. Now try and create a systemic method of exploiting that. It sounds easy but no one has really managed to provide convincing proof with a statistically significant sample size going forward. I'm not a believer in EMH but I'd say most of the stock market is very efficient.
Pratik Jain (6 months ago)
ajkorras i agree you.
Tero Liikala (10 months ago)
This...
Tero Liikala (10 months ago)
You sure didn't make it sound like you're just presenting an idea.
Jack Middleton (1 year ago)
Cap potential with high probability of gains... Why not just buy bonds then?
Rainman J (1 year ago)
I love the videos first of all I I wanted to bring up a question. keith miller and john marshall are both hedge fund options traders they trade only out of the money options with 2 months or better time decay..and when implied and historical volitility are cheap what do you think about that strategy? everyone has their own strategy right?
Eoin Green (1 year ago)
The opening theme "Martin Garrix - Break Through the Silence"?😉
Sky View Trading (1 year ago)
Awesome glad to hear it! :)
Eoin Green (1 year ago)
Sky View Trading ah yes very good! Thanks for the video exam tomorrow really helped !!
Sky View Trading (1 year ago)
Eoin Green close! Martin Garrix - The Only Way Is Up
Bipin Singh (1 year ago)
Hi... awaiting for your new vedio on volatility n time decay in options.. Thanks
Ferdous Adnan (1 year ago)
What Tool/Software is used to make this video??
finestfitnessmodels (1 year ago)
What program do you use as the presentation?
Charles Kakareka (1 year ago)
I'm in the market for the right course. What information can you provide as to why I should choose this one? I'd like to hear some reviews and successes of your students, plus what you've managed to accomplish.
Sky View Trading (1 year ago)
Charles, shoot us an email on the homepage of our website and we'll send you some info!
Chris Gionas (1 year ago)
A lot of thought provoking points were made here, but i found the example of shorting the 2008 collapse a very strange one. You basically argued that: at anytime some people will be bullish some will be bearish, you didn't mention that these select few were bearish...were bearish for a very specific reasons... I dont know if you've seen the big short, but the first charactor who gets the idea to short (Michael Burry) did so with logic and reasoning. He literally dissected mortgage bonds and inspected thousands of loans inside of them, and soon realized...these are crap, and once the new rates kick in during 2007 these CDO's will be garbage. That's not "luck" at all, and yes he did know information that hardly anyone else knew. Another example: When Pokemon-Go was hot, many retail-traders immediately started buying up Nintendo stock. Anyone who knew Nintendo did not actually own the rights to this app. would know this stock is overvalued based on false assumptions. Last example, Looking at a company like Sears, their financials...history....and lets even say you check out SEC filings and their own board members are cashing in stock. It sounds from this video that youre basically saying all of the above examples mean absolutely nothing. Please make sense of these examples for me
Hongyu Qiu (25 days ago)
Sky View Trading that’s a really good point. Like there is no sth like “perfect competitive market”. I assume there doesn’t exist a perfectly efficient market either. However, what caused this inefficiency and how can we make use of that is really sth we might want to dig into and could be constructive
Sky View Trading (1 year ago)
Possibly. But remember, I'm not necessarily arguing this. I'm just pointing out what the Efficient Market Hypothesis would suggest :) However, I would say that it's easy to attribute 'reasons' after the fact (and then make movies about it, of course)... but you do have a good point. There are actually a few pretty valid arguments against the Efficient Market Hypothesis and we plan on showing both sides in a future video. Still, I'd say the markets are mostly efficient, though. Are there some pricing inefficiencies? Maybe. But are we, as retail traders, going to be able to spot them and take advantage of them? I doubt it. Just my opinion and you are free to choose how strongly you believe in this theory. Some believe strongly against it. Many believe it is true to an extent. And some are efficient market theorists to the bone and you can't convince them otherwise.
Rahul Rajput (1 year ago)
wow man... just found ur channel... u r superb.. Thanks a ton... from India.
Sky View Trading (1 year ago)
Thank you! We appreciate the kind words. Motivates us to make more :) Many more videos to come. Cheers!
Dmitriy (1 year ago)
Great Video!!!
Pocket change (1 year ago)
Also would you consider making videos on small cap stocks. I just bought shares in $SAKL and am learning how different small cap investing can be.
Sky View Trading (1 year ago)
We will eventually. But I'd highly suggest you start venturing into the world of options trading. There really isn't much edge to be had when trading small cap stocks (in my opinion).
Pocket change (1 year ago)
Great video, thanks!
Sky View Trading (1 year ago)
Thanks for the feedback! Glad you enjoyed it. More to come!
Vuong Tran (1 year ago)
great video! whats the outtro song btw?
Sky View Trading (1 year ago)
Thanks! It's a remix of a Martin Garrix and tiesto song called "The Only Way Is Up". The remix isn't available online though but you can of course look up the original.
Jeff Martinez (1 year ago)
As usual great work Adam.
Sky View Trading (1 year ago)
Thanks, Jeff! See you in the chatroom!
Mahetab khan (1 year ago)
waiting for another excellent video, so much knowledge in just lil slides wonderful indeed
Sky View Trading (1 year ago)
Thanks so much. We're already working on the next one!

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